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September 17, 2005

民主党再生の条件

今回の民主党の敗因について、
「労働組合に牛耳られているからダメだ」
「だから労働組合の支配から脱却しなければならない」
という議論をよく耳にするが、評論家の意見にすぎないと思う。
当の民主党自身が前から「そんなことは分かっちゃいるけど、解決できない」問題としてずっと引きずってきたわけだから。

ニワトリが先か卵が先かの議論じゃないけど、労働組合の支えがなければ、今の民主党は存立しえないわけで、この「共依存」の関係を発展解消するのはそう簡単ではない。

ところで、今回自民党が300議席取って圧勝と言われるけど、地方議会に目を向ければ自民独裁ぶりはその比ではない。全国各地の事情を調べたわけではないが、民主の強い東京都議会(自民48議席 民主35議席)とか愛知県議会(60議席:30議席)とかはかなり例外的な方だろう。市町村議会にいたってはどこも「自民にあらずば議員にあらず」みたいな雰囲気は今も全く変わっていない。

党員数でみると民主党組織のぜい弱ぶりはさらに際立つ。
自民党の約160万人に対し、民主党は党員・サポーター数を合わせてもその10分の1程度しかない。地方に行くほど組織の弱さは深刻で、島根2区なんか、党員数の差は100倍もあるという。

そうした組織のぜい弱な民主党をずっと支えてきたのが、連合(労働組合)なわけだ
実際の選挙の現場では、膨大なマンパワーが必要だ。何百箇所の掲示板ポスター貼りとか、2万枚のチラシの一枚一枚に証紙を貼ったりとかとにかく地道な事務作業を山のようにこなせるだけのスタッフが集まらないと戦いの土俵にさえ上れない。選対本部の中枢幹部から手足となる運動員まで、連合におんぶにだっこの状態で勝てた民主党議員が連合に頭が上がらないのは当然だ。
(また西日本にいけば、地方行政においてものすごい影響力をもつ解放同盟という強力な支持団体がある。解同との関係の難しさは、ある意味連合との比ではないだろう)

要するに、現場レベルから見れば、「労組支配から脱却しよう」というスローガンは机上の空論でしかない。

だからこそ、民主党はこれまでずっと無党派層の取り込みに必死になってきたわけだが、それでも無党派層は寝たまま動かず、投票率は低迷を続け、政権奪取に失敗し続けてきた。それを小泉首相はたった一人で成功させてしまって、民主党はいよいよ立つ瀬がなくなってしまった。

前原新代表によって民主党は生まれ変われるのだろうか。

威勢よく支持団体を切ったはいいが、新たに無党派層の支持を得られなければ元から弱い足腰がさらに弱まって、単なるジリ貧、あるいは自滅の結果に終わってしまうリスクもある。

小泉首相は「破壊屋」+「希代の名優」という条件も備えていたからこそ、利権集団をぶった切る一方で、新しい支持者・無党派層の心をつかむことに成功し、自民党の体質改革に成功しつつある。

前原さんは政策通ではあるかもしれないが、後者の条件を満たしているかどうか現段階ではよく分からない。地方組織の強化という民主党の長年の課題も積み残しにされたままだ。

 

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Listed below are links to weblogs that reference 民主党再生の条件:

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