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October 11, 2006

問題は核じゃない。経済だ、愚か者!

表題はもちろん、クリントンが選挙スローガンに使った「It's the economy,stupid」より

北朝鮮の核実験について押さえておくべき一番のポイントは、本当に核だったのかどうかとか、国連憲章7章がどうとか六カ国協議とかテクニカルな話よりも、兵糧攻めによって北朝鮮が経済的に陥落寸前であることがあぶり出されたことだ。

北朝鮮がどうやって食べている国かと言えば、主な輸出品がミサイル、シャブ、ウルトラダラー(偽ドル)、偽タバコ、偽バイアグラ、それに在日支援者からのパチンコの不正送金という、とても近代国家とは思えないアウトローぶりである。

表向きには、

2003年の北朝鮮の貿易額は、輸入が19億400万ドル、輸出が12億1200万ドル。主な輸出品は海産物を中心にした動物製品で全体の37%を占める。このほか、繊維製品(同17.1%)、機械・電機製品(同12.9%)と続く。

具体的に日本への輸出品としては

あさり(40億円)、衣類(28億円)、松茸(8億円)である。

とのことだが、驚くなかれ、こうした公の統計には出ない裏稼業による収入は、麻薬や偽タバコなどを合わせて年10億ドル(1200億円)もあり(「北朝鮮クライシス」より)、パチンコの不正送金にいたっては年間2000億円!にものぼるという。

イランやイラクで忙しいアメリカは、北朝鮮に武力行使する余裕も意思もなく、代わりに採っている戦法が「兵糧攻め」であり、上記の資金還流を徹底的に遮断しており、これがテキメンに効いているのだ。かつて日本が太平洋戦争に暴発する直接の引き金となった、「ABCD包囲網」と同じ様に・・・

例えば、アメリカは北朝鮮のマネーロンダリングの温床であったマカオの銀行口座を凍結したが、その口座には「北朝鮮の国家予算の約2割」(北朝鮮クライシスより)が眠っていたという。

わが日本政府も、かつてのタブーがうそのように、北朝鮮関係のヒト、モノ、カネを徹底的に遮断している。例えば、北朝鮮からシャブを密輸している在日系暴力団を島根県沖で摘発したり、福島県知事ルートで騒がれているが、北朝鮮へのミツグ君でもあった水谷建設を摘発したり、脱税したパチンコマネーを現ナマで運んでいた万景峰号の入港禁止したりと。

日本政府が昨日発表した、北朝鮮からの輸入の全面禁止や、北朝鮮籍船舶の入港禁止、北朝鮮籍を持つ人の入国禁止は、こうした流れの極めつけであり、ヒトモノカネの日本からの直接の流れは完全に遮断されることになる。

また北朝鮮にとって、こうした違法ビジネスと並んで重要な収入源が、カツアゲだ。つまり核保有やミサイル発射で国際社会をどう喝して、人道支援などの見返りを引き出す。これがまた過去に何度も成功体験があるので、いつまでも繰り返してしまう。

北朝鮮の経済は、カタギになろうにもなれないヤクザと一緒で、違法ビジネスによる収入が断たれたからといって、更生して外貨を稼ごうにもまともな産業がない。このまま座して死を待つよりは、抜いちゃったらお終いの「最後のカード」である核実験に踏み切って、もう一度カツアゲしてやるか、というのが、今回の騒動の実態じゃないか。だからこそ、「これ以上の経済制裁は、宣戦布告とみなす」とか過剰反応してくる。

「アメリカの攻撃からの抑止力」、というのは一面正しくとも、真の理由ではないだろう。抑止力というのは、いわば「ハリネズミ戦法」だが、北朝鮮が今一番困っているのは、外部からの脅威じゃなくて、経済の崩壊という内部要因だ。これ以上防御を厚くしたところで、「引きこもり生活」を維持できないのだから、カツアゲに走るしかないのだ。

他方、アメリカが軍事制裁に踏み切らないのも、イランイラクに手いっぱいということよりも、北朝鮮なんてこのまま放っておけば自壊するから必要がないと考えているからだろう。(核がテロリストに渡ったり、自国まで届く核弾頭ミサイルが開発されない限りは)

個人的な印象としては、北朝鮮も誕生から60年もよく長続きしてきたものだが、今度こそ完全に崩壊のカウントダウンに入ったと思う。核を持とうと持つまいが、既に崩壊した共産主義国家と同様、経済がダメになれば根腐れするように、体制は崩れ落ちるだろう。

ポイントは、これまで北朝鮮に援助してきたが、今回の件でさすがに愛想を尽かしつつある中国や韓国が、本当に援助を打ち切るか。打ち切れば崩壊の直接の引き金となるだけに、両国にそれをやる覚悟があるかどうか。

そして、ABCD包囲網が日本の暴発を招いた二の舞いとならないよう、いかにソフトランディングさせるか。そして半島統一後に現れる新しい世界に、日本がいかに適応していくかを今から本気で考えとかないと。

北朝鮮クライシス 北朝鮮クライシス
日本経済新聞社 日経= 日本経済新聞=

日本経済新聞社  2006-08
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Comments

僕はマズイと思う。
北朝鮮がゆさぶられるということは崩壊が近づくということで、
崩壊すると何が起こるかというと、中韓が北朝鮮の面倒を見なければならなくなるということで、
そのとき、国家を統一するためのスローガンは反日抗日しかないからだ。

Posted by: 香川 | October 15, 2006 at 10:18 PM

>国家を統一するためのスローガンは反日抗日しかないからだ。

今と変わらないのでは?

Posted by: M | October 15, 2006 at 11:54 PM

》ABCD包囲網が日本の暴発を招いた二の舞いとならないよう

認識に誤りがあります。ABCD包囲網というのは、日本を参戦させるための手段でした。したがって、「日本の暴発」という表現も誤りです。せっかくの論の展開に水を差す、実につまらぬ瑕疵ですね。

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